谷歌的新办公政策会不会让旧金山湾区的房价崩盘?

这个办公政策大致是:员工每周在办公室3天即可、允许员工申请搬去其他办公点(约20%的员工)、允许员工永久在家办公(约20%的员工)。

表面分析,看似答案是肯定的。因为谷歌的湾区员工人数并不少,包括山景城、三藩市、阳光谷等园区可能共有5万员工,这些都是湾区购房主力。苦湾区高企房价久矣,还不赶紧搬离?而且这种政策从龙头公司一旦开始,其他公司也会跟着学,推而广之。

但仔细分析,我觉得房价并不会降。

身边那些嚷着永久在家办公或者已经搬离加州的人,大多是租客,在湾区并没有房子。而有房子的人离开的很少,至少非常慢。离开的人会被涌入的人填补。

为什么会有人涌入?原因很多,譬如说同一个周末既可以去海滩冲浪又去雪山滑雪的地理和气候,在地球上其他地方并不好找。反正谷歌一方面宣布鼓励你搬走或永久在家工作,另一方面还不断在湾区疯狂找地扩张,譬如说正在建设的能容纳2万人的San Jose市中心园区。所以谷歌在湾区的员工比例或许在缓慢减少,但总人数的绝对值还是在增加。而湾区房子的供应量就永远那么一丁点(旧金山市在去年一年只有100多个独栋房子售卖)。供需关系决定了房价中长期会继续📈,即使短期或许有调整。

谷歌新的办公政策的最终效果是达到有效的分流:赶走想走的走,吸引想来的来。而且这个面面俱到、员工的各样个人偏好都能被满足的政策,使得公司在旧员工的留存上、新员工的招聘上,显得更有竞争力。何乐而不为。

(Disclaimer: 以上纯属个人观点,和我的雇主的立场无关。)

Social status tokens of a platform

Old interview from Alex Zhu who founded Musical.ly now TikTok. Analysis still holds true for social media today, and actually has a lot in common with @eugenewei’s StaaS theory:

1. People come for utility and stay for content and networks

2. Young people have a lot of time and skills (creativity), but less social capitals

3. A platform needs to issue “tokens” (social status) by exchanging their “proof-of-work” (time*skills) created in the tool

4. The content has to be extremely light (within seconds) – both on the consumption and creation ends

5. To build a community from scratch you need to first let a small set of people be “rich”, then cultivate the “middle class”

6. Once they get over the fame, influencers need to monetization from the platform

Hoarders

If everybody’s not a beauty, then nobody is.”

– Andy Warhol

Revisionist最新一集Malcolm Gladwell一开始提出了疑问:纽约大都会艺术博物馆为什么大量积压永不见光的二百万件收藏品(能摆在展馆的只能是沧海一粟),也不救济那因疫情原因裁掉了的90多号员工?

以为又是讨伐 authoritarians的陈词滥调,但很快知道是在正名/赞美hoarding和hoarders(强迫性囤积症“患者”)。Malcolm后来去了Andy Walhol匹兹堡博物馆的储藏室,得知Walhol也是个hoarders,无论是价值连城的,或是最平民的市集的物品,都收集的堆积如山。这些物品对Walhol都是无价之宝。


Warhol曾经表达过他的艺术世界观:”If everyone is not a beauty, then nobody is.” 同样道理也可以解释Warhol以及hoarders的收藏怪癖吧:if every object is not beautiful, then no object is. Hoarders有一种才能(很不幸同时也是咀咒),就是她们可以看到objects本身的美,regardless市场给予这些objects的price tags。

Democracy, social media, and ideology

The overwhelming public opinion of “Twitter is doing the right thing by labeling Trump’s tweet and facebook is obviously wrong by not doing anything about Trump’s post” irks me.

There is a group of people who can quickly accuse others being fascism if their ideas are not fully agreed upon, without realizing they are exercising fascism. Well in the first place, if you are completely right about something, by definition you are not diverse. Because there are many/diverse ways to be wrong.

For Jack Dorsey, I am not sure if it is that Twitter’s been under the pressure for so many years or that he’s feeling guilty of not yet dealing with consequences caused by Trump. But he was not a fan of echo chamber – he mentioned that during the 2016 election year there’s an internal dashboard showing how silos people can be in consuming partisan information –

“(In Twitter) the amount of journalists on the left who were following folks on the right end of spectrum was very very small; the amount of journalists on the right end of the spectrum following folks on the left was extremely high”

#148 – JACK DORSEY (19:05) in Making Sense with Sam Harris

It’s easy to overlook how technology helps enable the march of the democracy and protests happening now – anyone is able to take a video using their phones and publish directly to the world on Facebook or Twitter. And the video as a media is so powerful that it gives color to what’s happening vividly. Imagine in the old world where none of these technologies existed – only newspapers have the means to publish something and they might only be able to describe as “a police was about to arrest a black suspect and the latter was sent to hospital after a chaos”… Instead, a video can depict so much more. And without these technology enablers (smart devices and videos, social networks, and no censorship by authoritarian), none of social awareness and fights for BLM today would have happened.

If you are a platform, the last thing you want to do is to decide what is acceptable to be said and what is not. Because once you do by exercising that power, you as an entity immediately becomes an authoritarian. This is not what we want for democracy.

Democracy, just like a social media platform, makes it easier for people to elevate their own voices, and it also makes it easier to spread misinformation. If you embrace democracy, you have to embrace both good and bad. But the latter shouldn’t be the reason why you need the platform but not people to state what’s right or wrong.

It’d a much easier situation for Mark Zuckerberg to simply do something with Trump’s posts but much harder to insist that Facebook shouldn’t be the arbiter of what is truth. For this, hats off to Mark.

Eric Weinstein’s view on Peter Thiel

Peter does a better job figuring out who the generative heterodox thinkers are. And then he realizes very often that they don’t know the best way of putting forward their ideas. He’s also got another idea that academicians don’t understand, which I call “Maximumly compress minimally distorted”, where he takes some ideas and he is willing to give up a tiny amount of accuracy to make it extremely compact so that when unpacked, it tells you a ton. And because academicians over focus on special cases, he very often runs into the table where someone would object to the idea that his principle isn’t exactly accurate.

Peter is an insanely difficult person for most of us to model, because I don’t think it’s even consistent session-to-session. Peter is so driven by the search for something new, that, whatever it is his thought lasts, is now incorporated into “Well, that’s old. What do we go from here?”

One of the reactions that people had was “Wow I have never seen this side of peter.” The delta between the private person and the cartoon character the media portrayed has gotta be one the largest delta of any other human beings.

Peter is a intensely moral thinker – and how the moral element of his thought interacts with the cognition and strengthens it. (this comment is actually from Tyler)

Episode 16 of The Portal

Atomize the work and team

Small team is incredible. And this totally strikes me and I can’t agree more since I had the privilege working on such teams before:

“There’s nothing more fun than having a very fast moving team where everyone’s rolling in the same direction. That feeling of power, and that feeling of excitement, and that feeling of energy.. There’s nothing like that in my life, before and after.”

Eric Schmidt said in the Tim Ferriss Show

When you think of why a company is the size it is (company size of 5 v.s. 500 v.s. 50,000), an interesting question might be raised: what decides if a large group belongs to a company internally, or should that group be external like a service provider?

Aside from some obvious reasons (e.g. enough capitals to do so), one theory from the economist Ronald Coase is that the limitation comes from the transaction costs – if external transactional costs outweigh internal transactional costs, it’d be done internally; and vice versa. So it is also possible that the external transactional costs are high at a given time in the history, but could completely change to the other way around, because of the “API economics” invented during the information age. For example, you might not need to build a dedicated engineering team within your company to develop payment technology, since external companies like Stripe can provide a much powerful and easy-to-use payment API. Everything becomes “plug-and-play”.

Another well known issue on a bigger group is efficiency – process is created and is inevitable – to make sure everything comes together consistently. But process is what you follow when you don’t have a better idea. And things get worse when there are too many people wanting to influence every decision. The progress becomes stagnant..

Also, in terms of Psychological safety, the scale of the team matters because proximity and intimacy matter.

“With my family, I’m a communist. With my close friends, I’m a socialist. At the state level of politics, I’m a Democrat. At higher levels, I’m a Republican, and at the federal levels, I’m a Libertarian.”

Naval Ravikant

In a bigger group, people tends to feel less psychological safety, and it’s challenging to be authentic. Eugene Wei explained one of the biggest challenges for Facebook, as asocial media, is it runs into the diseconomies of scale. By nature humans are very good at maintaining different identities for different groups. Very few of us have cultivated an identity for that entire blob of everyone we know. But as the Facebook’s newsfeed munches all things together. It’s a situation one might encounter in the real world only a few times in life, perhaps at one’s wedding or funeral, but now it happens to be the default mode on Facebook’s news feed.

The most interesting systems, like cells in a human body, are those that are cross-connected in ways that allowed parts to be interdependent on each other – not hierarchical.

(to be continued..)

Changes in asset ownership evolves tech

Reading through Ben Thompson’s What is a Tech Company, one of the most fascinating aspects I’ve found in the evolution of software comes from the changes of ownerships – who (users or companies or 3rd parties) owns what (hardware, software, data, etc.).

(Old) IBM – Sell to you the hardwares (computers/servers) we made, so you can install the softwares we produced. (Heavy operational costs for IBM, like assets maintenance and IT training. But the bill is on customers.)

(Old) Microsoft – You have your own computers/servers; now you need to install the on-prem softwares we produced so it can work on your hardware. (Arguably the most effective/lucrative business model because of zero marginal cost for Microsoft – distributing softwares doesn’t cost anything.)

Salesforce – We run the softwares we produced in the servers we own. You don’t need to own your servers or softwares – they are off-premises. All you need is to use any web browser to access it. (The definition of SaaS. Has fixed cost for running servers etc. but again this is covered by up-front paid customers.)

Atlassian – Sell to companies without even talking to them. Freemium, Easy-to-pay, and Pay-As-You-Go, from anywhere by anyone. (An evolution from SaaS but it gives emphasis on the bottom-up approach and the democratization aspect.)

Software creates ecosystems.
Software has zero marginal costs.
Software improves over time.
Software offers infinite leverage.
Software enables zero transaction costs.

As a separate note shown above, it is also interesting to see what criteria Ben Thompson uses to define a tech company.

Reading books as news feeds

This year I’ve been running an experiment of reading physical books as though they are feeds on Twitter.

It means that, I read 5~10 books in parallel within a given time — read one chapter in a book when I want, then jump to another book without finishing the previous one.

Reading in a bundle helps you connect dots if there are any. Yet a bundle of books are just a small set of consumption of all mediums. Today people have a great mix of diversified types of mediums: podcasts, youtube videos, social media feeds, magazines, favorite news sites, blogs via RSS, subscribed contents distributed via personal emails, subject matter discussions via corp emails, PPT proposals from your colleagues, etc. People might read less physical books, but I believe we actually “read” more today.

Another thing I adopted is to feel less guilty of not finishing a book — I rarely finished any books I recently touched. Instead of reading a book in order to finish it, maybe a valid measurement is how hard you think during the time you read it.

If someone you trust recommends a great book, you may buy it and put in your bookshelf. There’s no need to feel guilty of letting this book idle either. Since you still absorb information from across all other available mediums.

Employee performance metrics

It is common to hear that employees at Facebook get more burnouts compared to those at Google. Facebook does not necessarily have more projects per person – and I agree with what TechLead has said – it’s more about how the systems are set up, particularly when it comes to the criteria of how the companies evaluate their employees.

The performance metrics at Google are Complexity, Impact, and Leadership, while Facebook’s are Impact, Better Engineering, People, and Direction.

I’ll skip Google. But in Facebook, the Impact and Better Engineering sound a bit of a paradox. Because one wants to “break things” to ship as many features as possible in order to make product impact quickly, but could possibly sacrifice the engineering quality.

The People and Direction is more or less a paradox too – employees can be trampling on each others’ works to lead with a new direction of their owns for the same project. But being too aggressive like this could make them lose on the People metrics. So they learn to be passive aggressive.

It’s the constant battle with the paradoxical performance system that can make Facebookers feel more stressful.

Blame game

Reminds me of Malcolm Gladwell’s episode Blame Game – the 2009 Toyota sudden accelerate scandal was overwhelmingly a matter of human error. In fact, a human factor expert said everything about sudden acceleration looks like a problem with the driver, not the car. We just couldn’t admit it.